2016 Baden-Württemberg state election

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2016 Baden-Württemberg state election

← 2011 13 March 2016 (2016-03-13) 2021 →

All 143 seats in the Landtag of Baden-Württemberg
72 seats needed for a majority
Turnout 5,412,301 (70.4%)
Increase 4.2%
  First party Second party Third party
  Winfried Kretschmann 2012 (cropped).jpg Guido Wolf 2013 (portrait).jpg Jörg Meuthen 2015 (portrait).jpg
Leader Winfried Kretschmann Guido Wolf Jörg Meuthen
Party Green CDU AfD
Last election 36 seats, 24.1% 60 seats, 39.0% Did not exist
Seats won 47 42 23
Seat change Increase 11 Decrease 18 Increase 23
Popular vote 1,622,631 1,447,249 809,311
Percentage 30.3% 27.0% 15.1%
Swing Increase 6.1% Decrease 12.0% New party

  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
  Nils Schmid 2012 (cropped).jpg Rülke.JPG Bernd Riexinger 2014 (portrait).jpg
Leader Nils Schmid Hans-Ulrich Rülke Bernd Riexinger
Party SPD FDP Left
Last election 35 seats, 23.1% 7 seats, 5.3% 0 seats, 2.8%
Seats won 19 12 0
Seat change Decrease 16 Increase 5 Steady 0
Popular vote 679,872 445,430 156,211
Percentage 12.7% 8.3% 2.9%
Swing Decrease 10.4% Increase 3.0% Increase 0.1%

Wahlkreisergebnisse BW 2016.svg
Results for the direct mandates.

Minister-President before election

Winfried Kretschmann
Green

Minister-President

Winfried Kretschmann
Green

The 2016 Baden-Württemberg state election was held on 13 March 2016 to elect the members of the 15th Landtag of Baden-Württemberg. The incumbent government of The Greens and the Social Democratic Party (SPD) led by Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann lost its majority.

The Greens achieved a 6% swing and became the largest party in a state legislature for the first time. The Christian Democratic Union (CDU), which had previously been the largest party, lost a third of its voteshare and fell to second place. Alternative for Germany (AfD) contested its first state election in Baden-Württemberg, debuting at 15%. The SPD lost half its voteshare and fell to fourth place with 12.7%.

After the election, the Greens formed a coalition with the CDU, and Kretschmann was re-elected as Minister-President.

Campaign and issues[edit]

The Greens campaigned to keep Minister-President Winfried Kretschmann in office. Their central issues were energy, economics, and education. The CDU aimed to put an end to the green-red state government and usher in its own leading candidate Guido Wolf to head the state government. Themes in focus for the CDU were education policy, internal security, and the issue of infrastructure, including high-speed internet. The SPD, led by Nils Schmid, wanted to win more votes to continue the existing government coalition with The Greens. The SPD's campaign mainly focused on "good jobs", educational equality, and more time for the family. The electoral goal of the FDP, led by Hans-Ulrich Rülke, was to repeat its entry into the state parliament and possibly be involved in a governing coalition. They promised better education, the strengthening of the local business, and improvement of mobility. The AfD party campaigned to be elected into the state parliament for the first time. Its leading candidate Jörg Meuthen saw migration policy as an important election issue, alongside education, security, and energy transition.[1]

The election campaign was overshadowed by the European migrant crisis. In the crisis, Kretschmann supported the policies of Chancellor Angela Merkel.[2] Kretschmann said he saw no other person who could keep Europe together as Angela Merkel did. "Therefore, I pray every day that the Chancellor remains healthy."[3] CDU candidate Wolf also emphasized support for Merkel's "European solution" in the crisis, but in February 2016 tried to win more conservative voters by a joint proposal along with Rhineland-Palatinate CDU candidate Julia Klöckner for daily refugee quotas and border centers for migrants, which put additional pressure on Merkel.[4]

Parties[edit]

The table below lists parties represented in the previous Landtag of Baden-Württemberg.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2011 result
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Guido Wolf 39.0%
60 / 138
Grüne Alliance 90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
Green politics Winfried Kretschmann 24.2%
36 / 138
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Nils Schmid 23.1%
35 / 138
FDP Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei
Classical liberalism Hans-Ulrich Rülke 5.3%
7 / 138

Opinion polls[edit]

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU Grüne SPD FDP Linke Piraten AfD Others Lead
2016 state election 13 Mar 2016 27.0 30.3 12.7 8.3 2.9 0.4 15.1 3.3 3.3
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 7–10 Mar 2016 1,711 29 32 14 6 4 11 4 3
YouGov 2–9 Mar 2016 974 30 32 12 8 4 11 3 2
Forsa 2–8 Mar 2016 1,002 27 32 16 7 3 11 4 5
INSA 1–5 Mar 2016 1,005 28.5 33.5 12.5 6.0 3.0 12.5 4.0 5.0
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 29 Feb–3 Mar 2016 1,058 30 32 13 7 4 11 3 2
Infratest dimap 29 Feb–2 Mar 2016 1,002 28 32 13 8 4 13 2 4
INSA 25–27 Feb 2016 1,030 30.0 30.5 16.5 6.5 3.5 9.0 4.0 0.5
Forsa 16–22 Feb 2016 1,069 30 30 16 6 3 11 4 Tie
INSA 19–20 Feb 2016 1,000 30.0 30.5 16.0 7.0 3.0 10.0 3.5 0.5
Infratest dimap 11–16 Feb 2016 1,000 31 28 14 8 4 12 3 3
Customer Research 42 27 Jan–7 Feb 2016 1,000 33.1 26.1 15.6 5.1 5.5 10.5 4.1 7.0
INSA 26 Jan–1 Feb 2016 1,000 33.5 28.5 13.5 7.0 3.5 10.0 4.0 5.0
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 18–20 Jan 2016 1,069 34 28 15 6 3 11 3 6
INSA 11–18 Jan 2016 1,000 35 29 13 6.5 2.5 11.5 2.5 6
Infratest dimap 7–12 Jan 2016 1,000 35 28 15 6 3 10 3 7
Forsa 2–11 Dec 2015 1,064 35 28 19 5 3 7 3 7
Infratest dimap 26 Nov–1 Dec 2015 1,000 37 25 18 5 4 8 3 12
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 16–18 Nov 2015 1,040 37 27 18 5 3 6 4 10
INSA 24 Sep–6 Oct 2015 1,003 40 24 16 5 5 8 2 16
Infratest dimap 17–22 Sep 2015 1,000 39 26 17 5 4 5 4 13
Allensbach 18 Jul–12 Aug 2015 1,047 40.5 24.0 20.0 4.5 4.0 3.0 4.0 16.5
Forsa 23 Apr–7 May 2015 1,010 38 26 20 4 4 4 4 12
Infratest dimap 19–24 Mar 2015 1,000 38 25 18 5 5 4 5 13
Infratest dimap 10–11 Nov 2014 1,000 41 22 20 3 4 5 5 19
TNS Infratest 17 Sep 2014 41 23 19 4 4 4 5 18
2014 European election 25 May 2014 39.3 13.2 23.0 4.1 3.6 1.2 7.9 7.7 16.3
Infratest dimap 6–11 May 2014 1,000 41 21 20 3 4 6 5 20
Infratest dimap 4–5 Nov 2013 1,004 43 22 19 4 4 5 3 21
2013 federal election 22 Sep 2013 45.7 11.0 20.6 6.2 4.8 2.3 5.2 4.2 25.1
Infratest dimap 13–15 May 2013 1,005 39 28 19 4 2 3 2 3 11
Infratest dimap 7–8 May 2012 1,000 37 28 21 4 2 6 2 9
Emnid 15–17 Nov 2011 1,002 34 32 20 4 3 4 3 2
Infratest dimap 8–16 Nov 2011 2,403 37 29 22 3 2 4 3 8
Infratest dimap 16–17 Aug 2011 1,000 36 29 23 4 3 5 7
Forsa 18–29 Apr 2011 1,004 36 30 22 4 2 6 6
2011 state election 27 Mar 2011 39.0 24.2 23.1 5.3 2.8 2.1 3.5 14.8

Results[edit]

e • d Summary of the 13 March 2016 Landtag of Baden-Württemberg elections results
< 2011  Flag of Baden-Württemberg.svg  Next >
Landtag BW 2016.svg
Party Popular vote Seats
Votes % +/– Seats +/–
Alliance '90/The Greens
Bündnis 90/Die Grünen
1,622,631 30.3 Increase6.1 47 Increase11
Christian Democratic Union
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – CDU
1,447,249 27.0 Decrease12.0 42 Decrease18
Alternative for Germany
Alternative für Deutschland – AfD
809,311 15.1 Increase15.1 23 Increase23
Social Democratic Party
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – SPD
679,872 12.7 Decrease10.4 19 Decrease16
Free Democratic Party
Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP
445,430 8.3 Increase3.0 12 Increase5
Left Party
Die Linke
156,211 2.9 Increase0.1 0
Alliance for Progress and Renewal
Allianz für Fortschritt und Aufbruch – ALFA
54,764 1.0 Increase1.0 0
Ecological Democratic Party
Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei – ÖDP
38,509 0.7 Decrease0.2 0
National Democratic Party
Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands – NPD
23,605 0.4 Decrease0.6 0
Pirate Party
Piratenpartei
21,773 0.4 Decrease0.6 0
Other parties
Valid votes 5,360,351 99.0 Increase0.4
Invalid votes 51,950 1.0 Decrease0.4
Totals and voter turnout 5,412,301 70.4 Increase4.2 143 Increase5
Electorate 7,685,778 100.00
Source: Landeswahlleiter[5][6]

Aftermath[edit]

In the prior election of 2011, the Green/SPD coalition obtained a majority (73 of 138) of votes in the Landtag, including two opposition votes;[7] however after the 2016 vote, the coalition fell short of a majority, with a combined total of 66 seats (72 needed for a majority). Kretschmann's popularity propelled the Green Party to a gain of 11 seats, making history as the first time the Green party has been the largest party in State-level election results. However, the Greens' coalition partner, the SPD, lost 16 seats, thus depriving the Greens' of a clear majority of leftists.[8]

There were several possible and probable working majorities among the five parties in the Landtag. Expanding the existing coalition into a three-party "traffic light" coalition (green-red-yellow) by including the FDP would have given the administration a working majority of 6.[9] Coalitions with AfD appeared unlikely: a CDU-AfD coalition would be 7 short of a majority in the Landtag, so would have also needed to include the FDP to make a majority and remove Kretschmann as minister-president. Removal of Kretschmann was unlikely; CDU leader Guido Wolf briefly sought to get the Social Democrats into a right-of-centre coalition with the FDP (with Wolf as state minister-president), but his SPD counterpart Nils Schmid pointed out that such a coalition would frustrate voters due to the personal popularity of Kretschmann.[8] If it were possible to elect the minister-president directly, Kretschmann would have won an outright majority according to polls; he was even favored by 45% of CDU supporters.[10]

In May 2016, the Landtag confirmed Kretschmann's leadership in a secret ballot.[11] He won 82 votes leading a "green-black" coalition with a nominal majority of 89 Landestag members (Green 47, CDU 42). A similar "black-green" coalition headed by the CDU has governed in Hesse since the similarly indecisive 2013 elections, but this is the first time the Green Party is the lead coalition partner in a coalition with the CDU (previously, they led a coalition with the SPD). Kretschmann formed the Cabinet Kretschmann II as the state government.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Der Kampf um die Macht in Baden-Württemberg". Stimme.de. 10 January 2016. Retrieved 15 March 2016.
  2. ^ "Wahl in Baden-Württemberg: Kretschmann setzt auf Europa in der Flüchtlingskrise - Wahl in Baden-Württemberg". FAZ. 28 February 2016. Retrieved 15 March 2016.
  3. ^ "Winfried Kretschmann im Interview: "Ich bete jeden Tag für Angela Merkel" - Politik - Tagesspiegel". Tagesspiegel.de (in German). Retrieved 15 March 2016.
  4. ^ "Flüchtlingspolitik: CDU-Wahlkämpfer erhöhen Druck auf Merkel". Tagesschau.de. Retrieved 15 March 2016.
  5. ^ "Landtagswahl 2016 - Statistisches Landesamt Baden-Württemberg". statistik-bw.de.
  6. ^ tagesschau.de. "tagesschau.de". wahl.tagesschau.de.
  7. ^ https://www.welt.de/politik/deutschland/article13367450/Kretschmann-erhaelt-sogar-zwei-Oppositionsstimmen.html
  8. ^ a b Knight, Ben (15 March 2016). "Greens face rightward shift despite victory". Deutsche Welle. Retrieved 8 July 2019.
  9. ^ http://www.merkur.de/politik/live-ticker-landtagswahl-baden-wuerttemberg-2016-ergebnisse-zr-6194314.html
  10. ^ http://www.zeit.de/politik/deutschland/2016-03/landtagswahlen-die-gruenen-winfried-kretschmann-umfrage-baden-wuerttemberg
  11. ^ http://www.dw.com/en/baden-w%C3%BCrttemberg-debuts-green-led-coalition-with-merkels-conservative-party/a-19229906

External links[edit]